|
Hegemonic stability theory (HST) is a theory of international relations, rooted in research from the fields of political science, economics, and history. HST indicates that the international system is more likely to remain stable when a single nation-state is the dominant world power, or hegemon.〔Joshua S. Goldstein. ''International Relations''. New York: Pearson-Longman, 2005. 107.〕 Thus, the fall of an existing hegemon or the state of no hegemon diminishes the stability of the international system. When a hegemon exercises leadership, either through diplomacy, coercion, or persuasion, it is actually deploying its "preponderance of power." This is called hegemony, which refers to a state's ability to "single-handedly dominate the rules and arrangements ...() international political and economic relations."〔Joshua S. Goldstein. ''International Relations''. New York: Pearson-Longman, 2005. 83.〕 HST can help analyze the rise of great powers to the role of world leader or hegemon, which have been ongoing since the 15th century. Also, it can be used to understand and to calculate the future of international politics through the discussion of the symbiotic relation between the declining hegemon and its rising successor. Research on hegemony can be divided into two schools of thought: the realist school and the systemic school. Each school can be further sub-divided. Two dominant theories have emerged from each school. What Robert Keohane first called the "theory of hegemonic stability," 〔Robert Gilpin. '' The Political Economy of International Relations''. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1987. 86.〕 joins A. F. K. Organski's Power Transition Theory as the two dominant approaches to the realist school of thought. Long Cycle Theory, espoused by George Modelski, and World Systems Theory, espoused by Immanuel Wallerstein, have emerged as the two dominant approaches to the systemic school of thought.〔Terry Boswell and Mike Sweat. "Hegemony, Long Waves, and Major Wars: A Time Series Analysis of Systemic Dynamics, 1496-1967," ''International Studies Quarterly'' (1991) 35, 124.〕 Charles P. Kindleberger is one of the scholars most closely associated with HST, and is regarded by some as the theory's father.〔Helen Milner. "International Political Economy: Beyond Hegemonic Stability," ''Foreign Policy'', (1998)〕 In the 1973 book ''The World in Depression: 1929-1939'', he argued that the economic chaos between World War I and World War II that led to the Great Depression was partly attributable to the lack of a world leader with a dominant economy. Kindleberger's reasoning touched upon more than economics, however: the central idea behind HST is that the stability of the global system, in terms of politics, international law, and so on, relies on the hegemon to develop and enforce the rules of the system.〔Vincent Ferraro. "The Theory of Hegemonic Stability." http://www.mtholyoke.edu/acad/intrel/pol116/hegemony.htm〕 In addition to Kindleberger, key figures in the development of hegemonic stability theory include George Modelski, Robert Gilpin, Robert Keohane, Stephen Krasner, and others.〔Michael C. Webb and Stephen D. Krasner. "Hegemonic Stability Theory: An Empirical Assessment", ''Review of International Studies'' (1989) ''15'', 183–98〕〔Barry Eichengreen, ("Hegemonic Stability Theory and Economic Analysis: Reflections on Financial Instability and the Need for an International Lender of Last Resort" ) (December 9, 1996). ''Center for International and Development Economics Research''. Paper C96-080.〕 == Hegemonic rise == In order for a nation-state to rise to the level of hegemon, there are some attributes it must or is more advantageous to have. First of all, it must have political strength, military force, and superior national power that is necessary for its ability to forge new international laws and organizations. In terms of military force, a standing defensive army is not enough. A superior navy, or air force is. This explains why many hegemons have been geographically situated on peninsulas or islands. Peninsularity and insularity provide added security, and, where naval power is necessary, the ability to project military forces. In some cases, hegemons have not been insular or peninsular. The United States of America, for instance, has become a virtual island. It has two massive seaboards, and its neighbors are strong allies, and relatively reliable. Also, the modern invention of nuclear weapons, and the presence of a superior air force provide highly reliable security for the country, setting it apart from the rest of the world. Secondly, a hegemon must have a large and growing economy. Usually, unrivaled supremacy in at least one leading economic or technological sector is necessary. The first and second refers to a state having the attribute of the capability to enforce the rules of the system. Thirdly, a hegemon must have will to lead, and the will to establish a hegemonic regime, as well as the capability to lead and enforce the rules of the system. After World War I, Great Britain possessed the will to lead, but lacked the necessary abilities to do so. Without the ability to force stability on the international system, Great Britain was able to do little to prevent the onset of the Great Depression or World War II. Finally, a hegemon must commit to the system, which needs to be perceived as mutually beneficial for other great powers and important state-actors. 抄文引用元・出典: フリー百科事典『 ウィキペディア（Wikipedia）』 ■ウィキペディアで「Hegemonic stability theory」の詳細全文を読む スポンサード リンク
|